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Archive for October, 2008

Facebook - Social Ghosts

October 26th, 2008

Something is happening. In the last two months I’ve noticed a creeping trend in my Facebook Friend Requests - more and more people from High School are adding me as friends. For some that might not be a creepy trend but here’s the thing - it’s happening to everyone I know - literally. In the past two weeks alone I’ve had seven people all say to me, unprompted, something like “You won’t believe this but all these old friends that I haven’t talked to in years, friends from High School and College, are adding me as friends on Facebook. What’s really weird is that it’s happening to everyone else I know.” Sure enough, just this morning I, myself, received yet another friend request from someone whom I immediately identified by her hyphenated last name and, I’m guessing, that of her High School sweetheart turned husband. Ten minutes later and my wife yells from the kitchen - “No way - it just happened again!”. This can’t be coincidence and in fact, I’m sure it is not.

What’s happening is that Facebook has become a raging success and has, in Geoffrey Moore speak, Crossed the Chasm. They’ve moved past the early innovators and are now plowing into the rest of society which is where, for many of us, our ‘old friends’ have been hiding. Think of it this way - in the past 5 years social networks have taken off. First there was Friendster, then Tribe, then MySpace and now Facebook. Every time we signed up, invited friends, posted photos and built up a social graph only to abandon it as the next network came along (or did you forget to close those accounts?). For each network we built up a peripheral social graph representing those people either in front of us or just at the edge of our social visibility. Never did these graphs grow very large - but then along came Facebook.

Like the other networks we spent time building profiles, adding friends and experimenting with the site. Unlike the others, though, Facebook sticks. They opened up the API and 3rd party applications rolled in to make the site uber-sticky. These apps are creative, spread virally and their quality is much higher and broader than anything Facebook could have put out on their own. It’s a social marketplace where you can talk, share and play in any fashion you want all the while staying inside Facebook. With all that time being spent here it’s inevitable that our social graphs will keep growing beyond our peripheral vision - they have to - it’s too fun finding and adding friends. This is where the old ones come back to haunt us.

First you start thinking about the past. Then you Google it - it’s just like ego surfing. What ever happened to that girl you wanted to ask to the prom? So in love, so out of your league - type her name and bam - there she is, right in front of you and only a click away from being friends. A few hours later and you are not only friends again but you have unlocked Pandora’s box - their social graph. One more click and you’re browsing pages of Friends - most of whom you know. There they are - memory after memory, some good, some bad, most married and quite a few who have children for their profile picture. Yes, their children. Suddenly you are on a precipice - standing on the edge of a social cliff. Should you jump you won’t be falling but instead soaring across the chasm - bridging your current life back into the past, into a network of ghosts. Transitive Closure of your social graph is staring you in the face - jump far enough and you just might visit everyone you’ve ever known. Will you do it?

Yes, the real question is when, and what will happen. I can’t wait to find out.

troy Randomness

More Buffet : NYT Op-Ed Piece

October 20th, 2008

Another great post by Buffet that I completely agree with - time to buy.

troy Randomness

Warren Buffet on the Current Economic Situation

October 17th, 2008

This is the best commentary I’ve heard yet on the current economic situation.  Warren Buffet is my hero when it comes to the financial world.  He distills complicated topics surrounding the markets into plain and simple commentary makes things clear without losing any meaning or detail.  I highly recommend you watch it if you’re interested in hearing what he thinks about the bailout.

troy Randomness , , ,

Chuck Norris Wouldn’t Panic

October 10th, 2008

My wife and I were talking about the recent low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this morning when she asked a great question - why aren’t people panicking?  Better yet, why isn’t a 5 year low in the DJIA reason for us to fall into another Great Depression.  My guess is that, as simple minded as I am about the market, that if mortgages are truly the basis for this situation then there’s actually real, hard property underneath the financial problems.  Yes, these mortgages were overrated, overpriced, sold to less than quality buyers and then wrapped up into investment burritos that created a myopia that even the best of bankers cannot see through.  Yet underneath it all there is physical property and that property has value. We own two homes and I feel absolutely confident that they are still of good value now and into the long term.  That makes me thinks that there is truly a hard bottom - right around the basis for all these mortgages and if we go below that basis then there are good deals to be had. As the markets correct, tons of stable and profitable companies are seeing their shares sold off by people who now need to raise capital to offset their losses.  That creates a massive downward pressure - both the sale and the visible act of selling.  So be it, but it will rebound.

The Depression was brought about by people leveraging themselves and the wealth in this country being badly distributed.  Today we have consumers with massive credit card debt, true, but the middle class is huge and at the moment, appears to still have jobs and some savings.  That’s a good thing.  The governments and central banks around the world are all working, in concert at times, to keep this from falling too fast and many great investors such as Warren Buffet are picking up good deals.  That’s another very good thing.  Buffet knows good deals when he sees one and if he is buying then I should be buying, even if my portfolio is now worth 50% of what is was a year ago.  It’s always worse before it gets better but if we’re talking stock prices, it really doesn’t get much better than this.

If you think there’s going to be a panic then there probably will be.  If you think there’s going to be a rebound then there probably will be.  What are you thinking?

troy Randomness , ,