This is the best commentary I’ve heard yet on the current economic situation. Warren Buffet is my hero when it comes to the financial world. He distills complicated topics surrounding the markets into plain and simple commentary makes things clear without losing any meaning or detail. I highly recommend you watch it if you’re interested in hearing what he thinks about the bailout.
My wife and I were talking about the recent low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this morning when she asked a great question – why aren’t people panicking? Better yet, why isn’t a 5 year low in the DJIA reason for us to fall into another Great Depression. My guess is that, as simple minded as I am about the market, that if mortgages are truly the basis for this situation then there’s actually real, hard property underneath the financial problems. Yes, these mortgages were overrated, overpriced, sold to less than quality buyers and then wrapped up into investment burritos that created a myopia that even the best of bankers cannot see through. Yet underneath it all there is physical property and that property has value. We own two homes and I feel absolutely confident that they are still of good value now and into the long term. That makes me thinks that there is truly a hard bottom – right around the basis for all these mortgages and if we go below that basis then there are good deals to be had. As the markets correct, tons of stable and profitable companies are seeing their shares sold off by people who now need to raise capital to offset their losses. That creates a massive downward pressure – both the sale and the visible act of selling. So be it, but it will rebound.
The Depression was brought about by people leveraging themselves and the wealth in this country being badly distributed. Today we have consumers with massive credit card debt, true, but the middle class is huge and at the moment, appears to still have jobs and some savings. That’s a good thing. The governments and central banks around the world are all working, in concert at times, to keep this from falling too fast and many great investors such as Warren Buffet are picking up good deals. That’s another very good thing. Buffet knows good deals when he sees one and if he is buying then I should be buying, even if my portfolio is now worth 50% of what is was a year ago. It’s always worse before it gets better but if we’re talking stock prices, it really doesn’t get much better than this.
If you think there’s going to be a panic then there probably will be. If you think there’s going to be a rebound then there probably will be. What are you thinking?
So we’re all eco-sensitive around the house and as such use eco-papers of all kinds, including toilet paper. However, after we ran out last week I made a frantic run to Walgreen’s who apparently stocks only the premium papers. Thus we wound up with some Charmin. We’ve been using eco-paper so long I asked myself what could I be missing with this Charmin anyways?
The answer – feeling like you just wiped your butt with a $40 French hand towel.
I came up with this last night, a variation on another recipe I had tried. It was excellent.
Ingredients
1 bottle Riesling
4 Pears (Bosc, etc)
1 Tbsp Vanilla
4 Strips of Orange Peel
2 Tbsp Sugar
Start by heating the reisling in a non-reactive pot with the sugar, vanilla and orange peel. While it’s heating peel your four pears and carefully insert into the Riesling once it simmers. Let it simmer for 20-30 minutes, checking the pears occassionally by inserting a knife into the thickest part to see if they are done. Don’t let them get mushy. When done remove from the pot and let cool. Now turn up the heat and cook down the remaining wine just until it turns into a syrup. It will turn extrememly fast so watch it otherwise it will burn. Set aside the remaining syrup for later.
To serve place a pear in a bowl and spoon over the syrup. Add ice cream to enhance.
John’s wife, Emily, asked my if I’d like to cook for John’s birthday dinner. I found this quite an honor so, in his honor, I went all out. I don’t think I’m much of a cook so I enlisted the help of Toby Sanderson, chef extraordinaire. Together we created an excellent Asian styled menu complete with wine pairings. For the most part I thought it was very good and the patrons felt the same. The watercress salad was actually not too astringent as the dressing fought off the leaves. The Sauvignon Blanc I chose was good but could have used more body and fruit. Everything else however was well paired, especially my second shot at poached pairs. What a wonderful night and surprise that I could pull off my first ever all Asian dinner. Methinks I need to stay with that theme for a while longer.
Here is the menu.
Le Menu
L’Anniversaire de John Cornwell
Appetizers
Avocado Tempura
Champagne
Entrée
Bosc pear and watercress salad with sesame and almond dressing.
2007 Groth Sauvignon Blanc Napa, CA
Main
Seared Ahi tuna, avocado and mango chutney accompanied by sautéed Asian greens and fragrant jasmine rice.
2007 Sineann Pinot Gris, Newberry OR
Dessert
Bosc pears poached in Riesling atop Bi-Rite Ginger ice cream.
2006 Glacier Riesling, Yakima Valley, WA
A few people have asked recently what I’m up to so I figured I should at least blog about it. For the past 2 months I’ve immersed myself in the iPhone SDK in an attempt to become both a fluent iPhone developer as well as an OS X developer. To reach my goal of fluency I decided I should build an iPhone application that I’d want to use on a daily basis and something I might sell in the iTunes AppStore. That application is Sudoku. Why? First, because I love playing Sudoku. Second, because it’s a fairly graspable application for my first iPhone attempt. Third, because there’s a good chance of people buying it from the store. Not that I’m not looking for this to be the killer iPhone application nor a huge money maker. It’s just my first or hopefully many applications I’ll develop for the platform. My task list is telling me that I’ll be code complete by August 15th. If all things go well I’ll publish a week or so after I return from Burning Man. I’ve registered a new domain that I’ll be using for self publishing. I’ll announce it when it is up and running.
Otherwise I’m still enjoying San Francisco this summer. The weather has been accomodating for development but I’m looking forward to fall where it should heat up. Wow, did I just say that?
A friend recently asked me where I was able to get an historical photo of my Seattle home. Older Seattle homes, built before 1930, are typically available from the state archives. Send an email to archives@bcc.ctc.edu with your Property/Parcel Tax information and they’ll tell you what they can do.
Last weekend I rode my fourth STP, a 200 mile bike ride from Seattle to Portland. This year I was accompaniedied by some very good friends, including my wife Megan. We awoke at 3:45AM and successfully departed Seattle at exactly 4:45 with 8 of our 11 riders. Two of them caught up with us at Seward Park where we met Gary and began the trip south. Our pace was very easy, civilized in fact, and we stayed somewhat together for the next 5 miles but then broke into groups by speed, which is typical. At the Kent REI stop we all grouped back together then headed out for the 75 mile sprint to Centralia. It was crazy. Steve, Richy, Sven, Rene, Gary and myself were at the head of a squirrelly line of riders for most of it. When we got to highway 507 they put us on a multi-use trail that’s about 7 feet wide and has huge yellow metal posts at every intersection. Needless to say we were terrified but at least happy we were in front. Speed were 20-25mph the entire way. They should definitely get us off that path, someone is going to get killed. Regardless, it was totally fun in the way that dumb people like to do scary things. At one point a bee flew into my bike helmet and start buzzing around trying to get out. Since I was pulling I could only do one thing – take off my helmet while riding. I’ve never done that. It’s pretty easy but wow did it scare the guy behind me.
The last 20 miles into Centralia were incredible. Our fast group was still at the head of a line but now we were helping two other riders and they were FAST. Too fast actually, pulling at 24-25mph. Stupidly I followed and did my part at 21-23 when it was my turn. Feeling burned in Centralia I ate two sandwiches, pounded water and left, all in 15-20 minutes. Thankfully my legs didn’t bonk. I was all alone for about 5 miles until Ritchy caught me. We decided to just enjoy the rest of the ride, to take it at a leisurely pace and see what happened. Somehow we got into an incredible zone and were left all alone for that last 100 miles, stopping for only 25 minutes to get water. My ride was top-notch up until mile 160 where, after pulling up Highway 30 for 8 miles at 19.5mph in the direct sun without a break I heat bonked. It took all Ritchy’s encouragement and a lot of ice water to keep me moving to Portland. In all honestly, I thought I would pass out on the seat and crash, but somehow I made it, mostly thanks to Ritchy pulling me so much.
It was my hardest STP ever, mentally, and best physically. It was also my best overall time, finishing at 4:55PM for a totaly of 12:10. A short while later Steve and Mike came in followed later by Megan, Sven and Gary. A little bit later Kelly and Rene showed up. A great team, great efforts and great times. Megan just rocked it, never bonking and holding a rock steady pace the whole way. She’s incredible, so solid. I’m so proud of her (even though she did say a 200 mile bike ride is easier than a marathon).
Statistics
2008 – 12:10 Total, 10:48 Bike, 18.6MPH
2007 – 12:30 Total, 10:30 Bike, 19.6MPH
Not bad, pretty steady in fact. The one thing I learned this year is that less breaks is actually easier on you as your legs don’t cool down and you stay fresher. Believer it or not, it was true.
Today Bill Gates steps down from his role at Microsoft and I believe I owe him a huge thanks for all he’s done – for the software industry, for his community and now what’s he’s doing for the world at large. I grew up not far from Microsoft and remember when its offices were next to the BurgerMaster. In High School I dreamed of working there but after college I wound up at a small startup called Visio instead. Visio rode the coat tails of Microsoft’s revolution as they pushed for a PC in every home and on every desk. We had incredible success due in part to both our product and team but also to the massive growth that Microsoft was causing in the industry. I remember sitting around with other devs around 1995, we were talking about how important Microsoft was to the current industry expansion and about the role Gates/Microsoft played in it. Someone speculated that Microsoft, so dependent upon Gates, would crumble if he ever left. We all agreed until someone, Mike Frederick methinks, reminded us that all things do come to an end and that, though we couldn’t see that far in the future, he would one day step down. 13 years later and that day is here. The industry looks completely different now but hearing about his departure is making me wax nostalgic about where we came from. I’m proud to have been part of that history and thank Bill for helping make it happen. Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Microsoft helped fuel the revolution that keeps on moving. I hope that he has even more success in his philanthropic pursuits.
Thanks Bill.
I have a friend named Sven. The best way to describe him is too smart for his own good. He’s a complete genius when it comes to torturing people with Rick Rolls. Just when I thought he couldn’t go any farther he pulls off his greatest stunt ever – the Rick Roll Remix using our best friends as actors. I will let his work speak for itself.