Holy hell do they use a lot of MSG in their food here. Nor five minutes after leaving a noodle stand and I’m completely dizzy and buzzed for at twenty or thirty minutes. Wondering if I will get used to this at all.
Something is happening. In the last two months I’ve noticed a creeping trend in my Facebook Friend Requests - more and more people from High School are adding me as friends. For some that might not be a creepy trend but here’s the thing - it’s happening to everyone I know - literally. In the past two weeks alone I’ve had seven people all say to me, unprompted, something like “You won’t believe this but all these old friends that I haven’t talked to in years, friends from High School and College, are adding me as friends on Facebook. What’s really weird is that it’s happening to everyone else I know.” Sure enough, just this morning I, myself, received yet another friend request from someone whom I immediately identified by her hyphenated last name and, I’m guessing, that of her High School sweetheart turned husband. Ten minutes later and my wife yells from the kitchen - “No way - it just happened again!”. This can’t be coincidence and in fact, I’m sure it is not.
What’s happening is that Facebook has become a raging success and has, in Geoffrey Moore speak, Crossed the Chasm. They’ve moved past the early innovators and are now plowing into the rest of society which is where, for many of us, our ‘old friends’ have been hiding. Think of it this way - in the past 5 years social networks have taken off. First there was Friendster, then Tribe, then MySpace and now Facebook. Every time we signed up, invited friends, posted photos and built up a social graph only to abandon it as the next network came along (or did you forget to close those accounts?). For each network we built up a peripheral social graph representing those people either in front of us or just at the edge of our social visibility. Never did these graphs grow very large - but then along came Facebook.
Like the other networks we spent time building profiles, adding friends and experimenting with the site. Unlike the others, though, Facebook sticks. They opened up the API and 3rd party applications rolled in to make the site uber-sticky. These apps are creative, spread virally and their quality is much higher and broader than anything Facebook could have put out on their own. It’s a social marketplace where you can talk, share and play in any fashion you want all the while staying inside Facebook. With all that time being spent here it’s inevitable that our social graphs will keep growing beyond our peripheral vision - they have to - it’s too fun finding and adding friends. This is where the old ones come back to haunt us.
First you start thinking about the past. Then you Google it - it’s just like ego surfing. What ever happened to that girl you wanted to ask to the prom? So in love, so out of your league - type her name and bam - there she is, right in front of you and only a click away from being friends. A few hours later and you are not only friends again but you have unlocked Pandora’s box - their social graph. One more click and you’re browsing pages of Friends - most of whom you know. There they are - memory after memory, some good, some bad, most married and quite a few who have children for their profile picture. Yes, their children. Suddenly you are on a precipice - standing on the edge of a social cliff. Should you jump you won’t be falling but instead soaring across the chasm - bridging your current life back into the past, into a network of ghosts. Transitive Closure of your social graph is staring you in the face - jump far enough and you just might visit everyone you’ve ever known. Will you do it?
Yes, the real question is when, and what will happen. I can’t wait to find out.
Another great post by Buffet that I completely agree with - time to buy.
This is the best commentary I’ve heard yet on the current economic situation. Warren Buffet is my hero when it comes to the financial world. He distills complicated topics surrounding the markets into plain and simple commentary makes things clear without losing any meaning or detail. I highly recommend you watch it if you’re interested in hearing what he thinks about the bailout.
My wife and I were talking about the recent low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this morning when she asked a great question - why aren’t people panicking? Better yet, why isn’t a 5 year low in the DJIA reason for us to fall into another Great Depression. My guess is that, as simple minded as I am about the market, that if mortgages are truly the basis for this situation then there’s actually real, hard property underneath the financial problems. Yes, these mortgages were overrated, overpriced, sold to less than quality buyers and then wrapped up into investment burritos that created a myopia that even the best of bankers cannot see through. Yet underneath it all there is physical property and that property has value. We own two homes and I feel absolutely confident that they are still of good value now and into the long term. That makes me thinks that there is truly a hard bottom - right around the basis for all these mortgages and if we go below that basis then there are good deals to be had. As the markets correct, tons of stable and profitable companies are seeing their shares sold off by people who now need to raise capital to offset their losses. That creates a massive downward pressure - both the sale and the visible act of selling. So be it, but it will rebound.
The Depression was brought about by people leveraging themselves and the wealth in this country being badly distributed. Today we have consumers with massive credit card debt, true, but the middle class is huge and at the moment, appears to still have jobs and some savings. That’s a good thing. The governments and central banks around the world are all working, in concert at times, to keep this from falling too fast and many great investors such as Warren Buffet are picking up good deals. That’s another very good thing. Buffet knows good deals when he sees one and if he is buying then I should be buying, even if my portfolio is now worth 50% of what is was a year ago. It’s always worse before it gets better but if we’re talking stock prices, it really doesn’t get much better than this.
If you think there’s going to be a panic then there probably will be. If you think there’s going to be a rebound then there probably will be. What are you thinking?
So we’re all eco-sensitive around the house and as such use eco-papers of all kinds, including toilet paper. However, after we ran out last week I made a frantic run to Walgreen’s who apparently stocks only the premium papers. Thus we wound up with some Charmin. We’ve been using eco-paper so long I asked myself what could I be missing with this Charmin anyways?
The answer - feeling like you just wiped your butt with a $40 French hand towel.
Last weekend I rode my fourth STP, a 200 mile bike ride from Seattle to Portland. This year I was accompaniedied by some very good friends, including my wife Megan. We awoke at 3:45AM and successfully departed Seattle at exactly 4:45 with 8 of our 11 riders. Two of them caught up with us at Seward Park where we met Gary and began the trip south. Our pace was very easy, civilized in fact, and we stayed somewhat together for the next 5 miles but then broke into groups by speed, which is typical. At the Kent REI stop we all grouped back together then headed out for the 75 mile sprint to Centralia. It was crazy. Steve, Richy, Sven, Rene, Gary and myself were at the head of a squirrelly line of riders for most of it. When we got to highway 507 they put us on a multi-use trail that’s about 7 feet wide and has huge yellow metal posts at every intersection. Needless to say we were terrified but at least happy we were in front. Speed were 20-25mph the entire way. They should definitely get us off that path, someone is going to get killed. Regardless, it was totally fun in the way that dumb people like to do scary things. At one point a bee flew into my bike helmet and start buzzing around trying to get out. Since I was pulling I could only do one thing - take off my helmet while riding. I’ve never done that. It’s pretty easy but wow did it scare the guy behind me.
The last 20 miles into Centralia were incredible. Our fast group was still at the head of a line but now we were helping two other riders and they were FAST. Too fast actually, pulling at 24-25mph. Stupidly I followed and did my part at 21-23 when it was my turn. Feeling burned in Centralia I ate two sandwiches, pounded water and left, all in 15-20 minutes. Thankfully my legs didn’t bonk. I was all alone for about 5 miles until Ritchy caught me. We decided to just enjoy the rest of the ride, to take it at a leisurely pace and see what happened. Somehow we got into an incredible zone and were left all alone for that last 100 miles, stopping for only 25 minutes to get water. My ride was top-notch up until mile 160 where, after pulling up Highway 30 for 8 miles at 19.5mph in the direct sun without a break I heat bonked. It took all Ritchy’s encouragement and a lot of ice water to keep me moving to Portland. In all honestly, I thought I would pass out on the seat and crash, but somehow I made it, mostly thanks to Ritchy pulling me so much.
It was my hardest STP ever, mentally, and best physically. It was also my best overall time, finishing at 4:55PM for a totaly of 12:10. A short while later Steve and Mike came in followed later by Megan, Sven and Gary. A little bit later Kelly and Rene showed up. A great team, great efforts and great times. Megan just rocked it, never bonking and holding a rock steady pace the whole way. She’s incredible, so solid. I’m so proud of her (even though she did say a 200 mile bike ride is easier than a marathon).
Statistics
2008 - 12:10 Total, 10:48 Bike, 18.6MPH
2007 - 12:30 Total, 10:30 Bike, 19.6MPH
Not bad, pretty steady in fact. The one thing I learned this year is that less breaks is actually easier on you as your legs don’t cool down and you stay fresher. Believer it or not, it was true.
I have a friend named Sven. The best way to describe him is too smart for his own good. He’s a complete genius when it comes to torturing people with Rick Rolls. Just when I thought he couldn’t go any farther he pulls off his greatest stunt ever - the Rick Roll Remix using our best friends as actors. I will let his work speak for itself.
I just had a great experience with the online Apple store’s customer service. Last week I purchased an Airport Express to extend my home network. In addition I bought a mini-DVI cable. All of this is uninteresting. What is is that today when the box arrived I found my Airport Express but not, to my surprise, a mini-DIV cable yet instead an iSkin Revo iPhone case. Dialing up Apple support I key in only one button to get a real person who, to my surprise, not only sends out the missing cable for delivery in two days but tells me I can keep the $40 case that they mistakenly sent. No need for me to send anything back. She was fast, courteous, apologetic and kept me on the phone only long enough to fix the matter. Impressive - and now my iPhone is enjoying its new home - thanks Apple!
Moving to San Francisco 18 months ago I found myself asking people what they called the fog. Most people simply responded with “why do you have to call it something?” I have to call it something because I like nick-names. Yeah, me and George W., we both like giving nick names. Names like Tobbie, Chav, Poopers, Nyahh, Betz, Yaaaaay, M, Snoops, Skittles, et al. If you know me and if I love you then you’ve got a nick name. So what about this fog?
After a night walking around the Mission in the fog my wife and I finally figured out a name. Fred. Fred the Fog. I’m wondering if I couldn’t turn that into a children’s book somehow. There would be chapters like “Tourist Popsicle”, “Summer Sweaters” and “60F Here, 90F There”. They must sell more sweaters at Fisherman’s Wharf than they do at all the Bay Area Banana Republics combined because of Fred. Fred - the engine of summer commerce.
Right, enough of that, just know that if you come here in the summer bring a fleece and be ready for Fred.